Pacquiao v Cotto Prediction

Saturday’s fight is at a catch weight of 145 pounds. Both fighers are icons in their respective homelands and represent their people with great dignity and class. Neither gets involved in trashtalk, because their actions in the ring speak louder than any words ever could. Take note David Haye.

RECORDS TO DATE:
Manny’s victories over legends like Barrera, Morales, De La Hoya & Marquez are well documented. But he’s also taken care of the best Thai and Filipino fighters on the way to the top. He disposed of South Korean Seung-Kon Chae (23-0 when they fought), Mexican Oscar Larios (56-4-1 when they fought), Thai Wethya Sakmuangklang (41-3 when they fought), & Colombian Jorge Eliecer Julio (44-3 when they fought). Cotto’s record is decent but pales in comparison. On it you’ll find the likes of Zab Zudah, Sugar Shane Mosley, and Antonio Margarito. He arrives here via a split decision win over the durable Joshua Clottey.

STYLE:
Cotto is a boxer/puncher who breaks down opponents by going to the body first usually. In his most notable win, over Shane Mosely, he proved he’s much more than just a banger, having to adapt and use his boxing brain.

Pacquiao is unrecognisable from the one-armed kamikaze fighter he was before Freddie Roach started coaching him. Roach is a disciple of the late great Eddie Futch and generally regarded as the wisest owl in boxing at present. Roach has improved Pacquio’s previously non-existant right hook but mostly his footwork. His trademark in-and-out whirlwind attacks are only effective because of the improved defence he’s worked constantly on with Roach. The old boxing maxim ‘Speed kills’ is never so true as in the case of ‘Pacman’.

Both have one punch Knock Out power, though on paper, Cotto should be stronger at this weight as he’s moving down. But fights aren’t fought on paper and Pacman made a mockery of the supposed weight issues in his last fights especially the encounter with De La Hoya. Pacquio’s speed was the key factor then and may be all that matters on Saturday even if Cotto is stronger.

CHIN:
Advantage Pacquiao. Cotto has been hurt several times before, but in saying that he has come through more adversity. The big worry for Cotto fans is the damage done in the loss to Margarito. Although the legitimacy of that defeat is open to debate, Margarito has since been suspended for having a plaster cast substance in his wraps, there’s no doubt Cotto racked up plenty of miles on the clock that night.

Pacman has been hurt and put down too but that was along time ago before he met Freddie Roach. His latest points defeat to Eric Morales was very close and nothing to be ashamed of. He went on to knock out ‘El Terrible’ twice after that loss.

RING GENERALSHIP:
Pacman has faced the greater opposition, arguably adapting and overcoming to a greater variety of styles and situations. However, Cotto showed he can adjust in the Mosley (Mosley has been in great form since) fight and in his last fight with Clottey when he switched to the outside to out-box the Ghanaian hardman. 

INTANGIBLES:
Momentum: Advantage Pac Man. Manny has been more and more impressive with victories over Hatton, De La Hoya, Diaz, Marquez, Barrera, Solis, Morales, and Larios...the list goes on. Cotto is coming off a close split decision win to Clottey and a controversial TKO loss to Margarito. Controversial though it was, it was devastating.

Freshness: Both fighters are prone to cuts. Although Pacquiao has faced the tougher opposition, his improved defence and the manner of his wins over Hatton et al should mean he’s more rested. Cotto has been to hell and back against Margarito and pushed all the way against Clottey. His face was cut to rippons in his latest fights particularly that nightmare night for him against Maragarito. Advantage Pacman.

Corners: Freddie Roach vs. Cotto’s relatively new corner. Cotto fired his uncle last April, Evangelista Cotto, following an allegedly violent confrontation. The ‘new’ man working the corner is Joe Santiago, Cotto’s former nutritionist, who took over for the Clottey fight.

Roach and Pacman have a father and son relationship so the edge has to go them. There have been the now usual rumours of a fall out between the two but Roach only has Pacman’s best interests at heart when he orders him to cut back on the late night chat shows and political engagements. Pacquiao’s insistence on training in the Philippines (and not Roach’s Wild Card gym in LA) has reportedly led to tension between the two. After the area was devastated by Typhoons in the last few weeks, Roach gave Pacman an ultimatum to head back to LA. Roach left, Pacman followed and all is well again apparently. “He is right where I want him to be, perfect” Freddie says.

Cotto has had a seemingly serene training camp in Tampa, Florida. Though it would seem Cotto has had the smoother build up, Pacman thrives on chaos and seems to need the outside distractions to stave off the boredom of training. The same media commitments haven’t done any harm in his last few bouts even though he took months to shoot his own ‘super hero’ Pacman movie.

OUTCOME:
Pacquiao is on such an impressive run of victories i wonder when or if he’ll ever meet his match. Freddie Roach is super confident in his man just as he was before the Hatton fight. Roach is arugably the best tactician in the game and studies the opposition obsessively in the build up to a fight. He identifies “habits not weaknesses” and tailors the battle plan accordingly. He rightly identified Hatton’s tendency to leave himself wide open every time he throws the left hook. He claims Cotto has similar habits that will be his undoing and is said to have placed a sizeable wager on Pacman prevailing by stoppage in or around the 9th round. GIven his accurate predictions of late, that’s good enough for me.

PREDICTION:
Pacquiao to win inside the distance… @ 4/5
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